Market Preview

Minsky's Moment

The Economist in their last issue ran an excellent article about the “Minsky’s Moment”, the last time his name and theory were evoked by the Economist was in 2009 after the financial crisis. I can’t help wonder if the ...

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Potential Volatility

First I must apologize for my absence. I have been on the road show and opening new offices, certainly taking a heavy toll on my sleep and also this report. There is certainly a lot of potential volatility in the market between the US Elections, ...

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Quarter End

The quarter end is traditionally a time when the financial world reports their returns, makes forecasts for the next quarter, and of course the unspoken game of “marking”, which my colleagues will not find my brute honesty humorous, but ...

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Fed Rally!

As expected if the Fed decided to halt rate hikes and take a more dovish stance, the dollar would weaken and the equity, bond, and commodity markets would rally. However, we must take a step back and look at the big picture as to whether this rally ...

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Primaries and the Fed

This week should be pivotal for the markets. We have another “Super Tuesday” that could be the decider for both the GOP and Democrat primaries, which will certainly drive some volatility (depending on who slings ahead). Yet this is more ...

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Uncertainty?

I was speaking with a well-respected leader in the financial community discussing the market. She made an astute observation; “We can deal with bad news and we can deal with good news, what we can’t deal with is uncertainty!” She ...

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NIRP, really?

NIRP, Really?What is NIRPWhat is NIRP, quite simply it is the unimaginable just a short time ago. It is when the central bank takes rates negative. It sounds absurd and it is. During the height of the crisis, back in 2009-2010, as the Fed was ...

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Not all is Rosy

What we had hoped would not come to pass is now becoming reality. Perhaps it was hope rather than math, that drove optimistic perception. I have a saying, which I probably don’t repeat enough; “You can choose to ignore the math, but you ...

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