Market Preview

A Fed Game

The confluence between the Fed and economic data will ultimately drive Fed monetary policy. It is important to remember that one must not cherry pick the data nor just look at the headline data. Certainly the Fed is delving into the numbers, because ...

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Quarter End

The quarter end is traditionally a time when the financial world reports their returns, makes forecasts for the next quarter, and of course the unspoken game of “marking”, which my colleagues will not find my brute honesty humorous, but ...

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Fed Rally!

As expected if the Fed decided to halt rate hikes and take a more dovish stance, the dollar would weaken and the equity, bond, and commodity markets would rally. However, we must take a step back and look at the big picture as to whether this rally ...

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Primaries and the Fed

This week should be pivotal for the markets. We have another “Super Tuesday” that could be the decider for both the GOP and Democrat primaries, which will certainly drive some volatility (depending on who slings ahead). Yet this is more ...

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Jobs Victory?

Fridays Labor Report showed strong growth in the job market, enough so that President Obama was able to take a victory lap. Yet if one peers behind the headline number curtain, we see that the type of jobs and demographic are not as robust as the ...

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Uncertainty?

I was speaking with a well-respected leader in the financial community discussing the market. She made an astute observation; “We can deal with bad news and we can deal with good news, what we can’t deal with is uncertainty!” She ...

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Europe offers breathing room?

While I have been adamant that the Fed will NOT raise rates in December, one thing has changed my mind as it comes back to my CORE focus on the dollar and dis-inflationary pressure. We must remember at the end of the day it is the dollar and ...

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Fed Reliance

I hope everyone had an excellent Thanksgiving and enjoyed their holiday shopping. The market has been moving in fits and starts. The data has certainly been mixed, from weak holiday sales and the recent better than expected Labor Report. However, ...

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