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Minsky's Moment

The Economist in their last issue ran an excellent article about the “Minsky’s Moment”, the last time his name and theory were evoked by the Economist was in 2009 after the financial crisis. I can’t help wonder if the ...

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Quarter End

The quarter end is traditionally a time when the financial world reports their returns, makes forecasts for the next quarter, and of course the unspoken game of “marking”, which my colleagues will not find my brute honesty humorous, but ...

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Primaries and the Fed

This week should be pivotal for the markets. We have another “Super Tuesday” that could be the decider for both the GOP and Democrat primaries, which will certainly drive some volatility (depending on who slings ahead). Yet this is more ...

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NIRP, really?

NIRP, Really?What is NIRPWhat is NIRP, quite simply it is the unimaginable just a short time ago. It is when the central bank takes rates negative. It sounds absurd and it is. During the height of the crisis, back in 2009-2010, as the Fed was ...

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Japan jumps the shark!

“Jump the Shark!” is an idiom that typically describes a moment in the evolution of a television show when the quality declines and some type of gimmick is used in a desperate attempt to keep viewers interested. The term comes from a ...

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1,000 Foot View

Is the world coming to an end? It would seem so as we watch the market take a nose dive, only to rebound in what seems nothing more than a “dead cat” bounce. So why all the turmoil, volatility, and radical markets? We can certainly try ...

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2016 Predictions

It is the end of 2015 and we have been in for a wild ride, driven by Fed interventionism and uncertainty. The Fed raised rates to the upper end of their 0 - .25 years long ZERO rate policy. However, the 25bps raise had little effect on bonds or the ...

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New Keynesians

Is the rally getting long in the tooth? The recent rally, much like the sell-off that preceded it were not based on economics, earnings, or even geo-political events – it fell squarely on the shoulders of the Fed’s interest rate ...

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